It’s the No. 1 barrier to entry for young, would be homebuyers: credit. Millennials are the first generation -nearly-apocalyptic home marketplace, where lenders, eight years after, are paying billions in reparations for outright fraud and mortgage misconduct.
Millennial homebuyers are paying a cost.
“The mortgage business is poised to experience a monumental shift as more millennial homebuyers start to enter the marketplace,” said Joe Tyrrell, executive vice president of corporate strategy at Ellie Mae, a mortgage applications and information business. “There are approximately 87 million would be homebuyers in the millennial generation and 91 percent of them say they mean to possess a house one day. Lenders must prepare now to fulfill their needs.”
The leading edge is currently entering the home marketplace while millennials are waiting to get married and have kids, variables that are the main drivers of homeownership. Millennials are even beginning to go to the suburbs, and actually, last year marked a turning point, where urban centers reached “peak millennial,” according to a fresh study from Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the USC Price School of Public Policy.
“After more than a decade of growing attention, we see the millennial tendency of increased downtown living has peaked out and is currently starting a decline,” Myers wrote. “This is a remarkable human interest story with great consequences for cities and property investments.”
Single-family leases in the suburbs are more plentiful than ever and more popular before, but most millennials say they do need to purchase. Mortgages are meant by that.
More than one third of home loans made to millennials since 2014 were Federal Housing Administration loans guaranteed by the federal government, based on Ellie Mae’s new Millennial Tracker. This is much higher than the 22 percent complete share that FHA orders in entire mortgage volume. FHA permits borrowers to make only a 3.5 percent down payment, which is appealing to younger buyers who are cash strapped to begin with, but also loaded by a sky high lease marketplace.
FHA, nevertheless, comes with a cost: mortgage insurance premiums.
The added price, on top of higher credit score conditions, continue to sideline youthful buyers. While family foundation is growing, just one third of those new homes are owner-occupants. The remainder are renters, which is why the homeownership rate in the U.S. is dropping again, now down to 63.5 percent, according to the U.S. Census, only one tick higher than its 50-year low.
“The more the homeownership amount falls, the more focus there will be to the question of whether government policy changes implemented in the aftermath of the fiscal disaster are keeping people from purchasing houses,” Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Securities wrote in a note last week. “Our perspective is that government policies are keeping credit states unnecessarily tight. So this focus could be a positive in getting regulators to reassess whether they’ve correctly balanced consumer protection and homeownership chance.”
Seiberg points especially to sustained pressure from the Justice Department on loan originators, but given that the DOJ is not likely to back off, he implies FHA additional cut premiums in the drop.
“This could mean removing life-of-loan coverage, reducing the upfront premium or cutting the yearly premium. That might convince more borrowers to seek FHA loans,” Seiberg included.
Mortgage interest rates continue to be near historical lows, but house prices are increasing far faster than incomes, negating much of the savings from these low rates. The 0.35 percentage point fall in interest rates since the beginning of 2016 would have saved the typical homebuyer $44 per month, but house price increases have cut that to only $18 a month nationwide and even more in major cities, according to Black Knight Financial Services.
The greatest percent of shut home loans for millennials are away and far in the Midwest, where house prices are lowest, based on the Ellie Mae tracker. The average FICO score for female loan applicants in March was 724 and for guys, both much greater than the national average credit score, 727.